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I thought it would be interesting to see how the inventor of Magic Formula Investing is faring in this train wreck of a market. Per MagicDiligence's research, the overall strategy has been vastly underperforming the market, and the Top Buys portfolio has been beat down as well, falling from 12% outperformance of the S&P in late August to being about 1.5% behind it today. Has Greenblatt been able to deliver a better performance than his strategy, or MagicDiligence?
The table below lists each of Joel's purchases and cost basis as reported by GuruFocus. It then lists yesterday's (11/19) closing price, and what his return on each position is so far. Stocks with a white background have been Magic Formula stocks (in one of our screens) in the past 6 months, the ones with a red background have not. Here are the results:
| Ticker | Greenblatt Cost | Current Price | Performance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NT | 5.80 | 0.52 | -91.03% | |
| VCI | 9.60 | 1.11 | -88.44% | |
| VC | 2.90 | 0.39 | -86.55% | |
| NWY | 10.20 | 1.46 | -85.69% | |
| GTLS | 44.10 | 7.53 | -82.93% | |
| CTCM | 20.40 | 3.70 | -81.86% | MD Research |
| GTI | 20.40 | 3.98 | -80.49% | |
| GHM | 41.70 | 8.27 | -80.17% | |
| SANM | 1.80 | 0.36 | -80.00% | |
| ARM | 14.10 | 2.93 | -79.22% | |
| MTW | 24.20 | 5.47 | -77.40% | MD Research |
| TEX | 43.90 | 10.21 | -76.74% | |
| XIDE | 12.60 | 3.01 | -76.11% | |
| HMA | 5.70 | 1.43 | -74.91% | |
| DAR | 14.30 | 3.60 | -74.83% | MD Research |
| STX | 14.80 | 3.91 | -73.58% | |
| WFR | 44.50 | 12.20 | -72.58% | |
| BARE | 13.50 | 3.75 | -72.22% | MD Research |
| ANF | 51.50 | 14.55 | -71.75% | |
| KV.A | 22.00 | 6.30 | -71.36% | |
| JOYG | 64.30 | 18.45 | -71.31% | |
| BEAV | 23.20 | 6.78 | -70.78% | |
| M | 19.40 | 5.68 | -70.72% | |
| TXT | 40.80 | 12.20 | -70.10% | |
| BGP | 5.90 | 1.78 | -69.83% | |
| ERES | 13.90 | 4.20 | -69.78% | |
| IPG | 8.60 | 2.61 | -69.65% | |
| WBC | 42.70 | 13.37 | -68.69% | |
| BUCY | 60.30 | 19.10 | -68.33% | |
| MFW | 41.30 | 13.65 | -66.95% | |
| AIMC | 16.70 | 5.55 | -66.77% | |
| DISH | 28.10 | 9.62 | -65.77% | |
| CR | 35.20 | 12.08 | -65.68% | |
| GCO | 32.70 | 11.40 | -65.14% | |
| JBL | 15.10 | 5.27 | -65.10% | |
| FLS | 119.60 | 42.12 | -64.78% | |
| HLF | 42.80 | 15.50 | -63.79% | |
| IFSIA | 12.20 | 4.50 | -63.11% | |
| AP | 38.60 | 14.30 | -62.95% | |
| SNHY | 33.40 | 12.52 | -62.51% | |
| CIR | 56.20 | 21.17 | -62.33% | |
| NSTC | 11.70 | 4.46 | -61.88% | |
| BBI | 2.50 | 0.96 | -61.60% | |
| TTMI | 12.00 | 4.65 | -61.25% | |
| CXR | 10.70 | 4.20 | -60.75% | |
| CKXE | 7.70 | 3.03 | -60.65% | |
| ISIL | 22.30 | 8.84 | -60.36% | |
| MFLX | 20.70 | 8.21 | -60.34% | |
| ALV | 38.90 | 15.48 | -60.21% | |
| PACR | 20.60 | 8.36 | -59.42% | |
| ARO | 33.20 | 13.65 | -58.89% | |
| CMCO | 25.50 | 10.50 | -58.82% | |
| RBN | 43.80 | 18.04 | -58.81% | |
| VCLK | 12.20 | 5.05 | -58.61% | MD Research |
| EME | 29.70 | 12.45 | -58.08% | |
| FLR | 75.10 | 31.91 | -57.51% | |
| NPO | 38.60 | 16.42 | -57.46% | |
| VSH | 8.50 | 3.62 | -57.41% | |
| TTWO | 22.90 | 9.82 | -57.12% | MD Research |
| GSOL | 12.30 | 5.31 | -56.83% | |
| AG | 54.00 | 23.48 | -56.52% | |
| AKAM | 24.40 | 10.63 | -56.43% | |
| GDI | 45.40 | 19.96 | -56.04% | |
| CEC | 33.70 | 14.91 | -55.76% | |
| TIF | 39.70 | 17.71 | -55.39% | |
| CLS | 8.00 | 3.59 | -55.13% | |
| SVR | 16.90 | 7.65 | -54.73% | |
| PLCE | 38.20 | 17.55 | -54.06% | |
| SAPE | 7.70 | 3.57 | -53.64% | |
| PCR | 27.00 | 12.54 | -53.56% | |
| KBR | 24.50 | 11.44 | -53.31% | |
| DELL | 22.10 | 10.35 | -53.17% | |
| NWS | 13.90 | 6.55 | -52.88% | MD Research |
| VTIV | 22.20 | 10.52 | -52.61% | |
| VIA.B | 28.50 | 13.51 | -52.60% | |
| WTSLA | 4.70 | 2.25 | -52.13% | |
| BKE | 32.10 | 15.39 | -52.06% | |
| FINL | 10.60 | 5.11 | -51.79% | |
| NZ | 12.50 | 6.09 | -51.28% | |
| NSM | 20.40 | 10.04 | -50.78% | |
| JAS | 23.60 | 11.62 | -50.76% | |
| MWW | 18.70 | 9.23 | -50.64% | |
| GME | 41.40 | 20.56 | -50.34% | |
| RX | 21.60 | 10.73 | -50.32% | |
| CPWR | 10.80 | 5.39 | -50.09% | |
| FIX | 13.80 | 6.93 | -49.78% | |
| RSH | 16.80 | 8.46 | -49.64% | |
| PII | 44.70 | 22.64 | -49.35% | |
| MSTR | 63.30 | 32.65 | -48.42% | MD Research |
| MAN | 49.40 | 25.62 | -48.14% | |
| SOHU | 71.90 | 37.29 | -48.14% | |
| PH | 63.20 | 33.80 | -46.52% | |
| OMC | 42.10 | 22.68 | -46.13% | |
| PCP | 96.20 | 52.34 | -45.59% | |
| CCRN | 15.60 | 8.49 | -45.58% | |
| NTE | 10.20 | 5.58 | -45.29% | |
| ADTN | 22.30 | 12.31 | -44.80% | |
| BR | 19.40 | 10.72 | -44.74% | |
| QLGC | 17.70 | 9.87 | -44.24% | |
| GPS | 17.90 | 10.09 | -43.63% | |
| PCLN | 97.80 | 55.25 | -43.51% | |
| IVGN | 41.20 | 23.42 | -43.16% | |
| KNSY | 34.20 | 19.48 | -43.04% | |
| MRX | 19.20 | 10.96 | -42.92% | |
| GR | 48.60 | 27.84 | -42.72% | |
| IM | 18.20 | 10.56 | -41.98% | |
| INTC | 21.40 | 12.49 | -41.64% | |
| XLNX | 24.50 | 14.67 | -40.12% | |
| SYX | 16.30 | 9.79 | -39.94% | |
| SWIR | 12.50 | 7.51 | -39.92% | |
| AOB | 8.40 | 5.12 | -39.05% | |
| ROST | 38.40 | 23.50 | -38.80% | |
| EQ | 45.20 | 27.99 | -38.08% | |
| ROG | 40.40 | 25.16 | -37.72% | |
| SWIM | 9.10 | 5.67 | -37.69% | |
| SUNH | 15.70 | 9.85 | -37.26% | |
| AYI | 41.90 | 26.33 | -37.16% | |
| FRX | 34.10 | 21.49 | -36.98% | |
| RSCR | 19.00 | 12.00 | -36.84% | |
| WMS | 30.70 | 19.39 | -36.84% | |
| CTL | 36.90 | 23.86 | -35.34% | |
| SLE | 13.50 | 8.82 | -34.67% | |
| SNPS | 22.70 | 15.18 | -33.13% | |
| CA | 22.80 | 15.30 | -32.89% | |
| ELNK | 8.70 | 5.86 | -32.64% | MD Research |
| EMR | 46.60 | 31.63 | -32.12% | |
| ACN | 39.40 | 27.00 | -31.47% | |
| MSFT | 26.50 | 18.29 | -30.98% | |
| LXK | 34.30 | 23.79 | -30.64% | |
| HUB.B | 40.70 | 28.69 | -29.51% | |
| CTR | 17.40 | 12.31 | -29.25% | |
| ASIA | 12.30 | 8.73 | -29.02% | |
| CQB | 15.30 | 10.87 | -28.95% | |
| Q | 3.60 | 2.61 | -27.50% | |
| ABC | 40.50 | 29.61 | -26.89% | |
| DDUP | 22.10 | 16.24 | -26.52% | |
| ORCL | 21.30 | 16.00 | -24.88% | |
| WPI | 29.40 | 22.14 | -24.69% | |
| NSR | 22.20 | 16.92 | -23.78% | |
| CHKP | 24.00 | 18.44 | -23.17% | |
| PPD | 43.20 | 33.84 | -21.67% | |
| BVF | 10.10 | 8.19 | -18.91% | |
| T | 30.90 | 25.23 | -18.35% | |
| OMI | 46.60 | 38.41 | -17.58% | |
| EXPO | 31.40 | 26.06 | -17.01% | |
| BJ | 39.60 | 33.42 | -15.61% | |
| PFE | 18.40 | 15.56 | -15.43% | |
| RAI | 51.70 | 44.19 | -14.53% | |
| CBZ | 8.30 | 7.20 | -13.25% | |
| VGR | 17.20 | 15.03 | -12.62% | MD Research |
| CEPH | 75.10 | 74.27 | -1.11% | |
| CPB | 36.60 | 36.94 | 0.93% | |
| DSCP | 48.60 | 50.70 | 4.32% | |
| CYCL | 7.20 | 7.55 | 4.86% | |
| LHCG | 27.30 | 31.65 | 15.93% | |
| Average: | -49.40% |
MFI investors are in good company... This $63 million portfolio is getting hammered just as hard, if not harder, than everyone else, with the positions down an average 49.4%. Only 4 of 156 positions are positive. Well over half of them were MFI stocks: 90 of 156. There may be more that appeared on the official MFI site, as MagicDiligence only records the 100 over 50 million and 50 over 2 billion screens.
Of course, if we confronted Joel Greenblatt on this, his response would be predictable. Stocks return to their true value over a period of 2-3 years. 3-month returns don't matter. Stocks are deeply undervalued. This is the outlook we need to maintain, even in these scary times.
Lower your risk and increase your returns. A MagicDiligence Membership provides you with in-depth research on the very best stocks in the Magic Formula screen today. Avoid the value traps and get in on the truly great companies. Completely free 30-day trial!
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