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Nov 20, 2008
. However, this time he bought a huge portfolio of 156 stocks, totalling about $63 million dollars. The portfolio included a large number of Magic Formula stocks, as we would expect.
I thought it would be interesting to see how the inventor of Magic Formula Investing is faring in this train wreck of a market. Per MagicDiligence's research, the overall strategy has been vastly underperforming the market, and the Top Buys portfolio has been beat down as well, falling from 12% outperformance of the S&P in late August to being about 1.5% behind it today. Has Greenblatt been able to deliver a better performance than his strategy, or MagicDiligence?
The table below lists each of Joel's purchases and cost basis as reported by GuruFocus. It then lists yesterday's (11/19) closing price, and what his return on each position is so far. Stocks with a white background have been Magic Formula stocks (in one of our screens) in the past 6 months, the ones with a red background have not. Here are the results:
| Ticker | Greenblatt Cost | Current Price | Performance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NT | 5.80 | 0.52 | -91.03% | |
| VCI | 9.60 | 1.11 | -88.44% | |
| VC | 2.90 | 0.39 | -86.55% | |
| NWY | 10.20 | 1.46 | -85.69% | |
| GTLS | 44.10 | 7.53 | -82.93% | |
| CTCM | 20.40 | 3.70 | -81.86% | MD Research |
| GTI | 20.40 | 3.98 | -80.49% | |
| GHM | 41.70 | 8.27 | -80.17% | |
| SANM | 1.80 | 0.36 | -80.00% | |
| ARM | 14.10 | 2.93 | -79.22% | |
| MTW | 24.20 | 5.47 | -77.40% | MD Research |
| TEX | 43.90 | 10.21 | -76.74% | |
| XIDE | 12.60 | 3.01 | -76.11% | |
| HMA | 5.70 | 1.43 | -74.91% | |
| DAR | 14.30 | 3.60 | -74.83% | MD Research |
| STX | 14.80 | 3.91 | -73.58% | |
| WFR | 44.50 | 12.20 | -72.58% | |
| BARE | 13.50 | 3.75 | -72.22% | MD Research |
| ANF | 51.50 | 14.55 | -71.75% | |
| KV.A | 22.00 | 6.30 | -71.36% | |
| JOYG | 64.30 | 18.45 | -71.31% | |
| BEAV | 23.20 | 6.78 | -70.78% | |
| M | 19.40 | 5.68 | -70.72% | |
| TXT | 40.80 | 12.20 | -70.10% | |
| BGP | 5.90 | 1.78 | -69.83% | |
| ERES | 13.90 | 4.20 | -69.78% | |
| IPG | 8.60 | 2.61 | -69.65% | |
| WBC | 42.70 | 13.37 | -68.69% | |
| BUCY | 60.30 | 19.10 | -68.33% | |
| MFW | 41.30 | 13.65 | -66.95% | |
| AIMC | 16.70 | 5.55 | -66.77% | |
| DISH | 28.10 | 9.62 | -65.77% | |
| CR | 35.20 | 12.08 | -65.68% | |
| GCO | 32.70 | 11.40 | -65.14% | |
| JBL | 15.10 | 5.27 | -65.10% | |
| FLS | 119.60 | 42.12 | -64.78% | |
| HLF | 42.80 | 15.50 | -63.79% | |
| IFSIA | 12.20 | 4.50 | -63.11% | |
| AP | 38.60 | 14.30 | -62.95% | |
| SNHY | 33.40 | 12.52 | -62.51% | |
| CIR | 56.20 | 21.17 | -62.33% | |
| NSTC | 11.70 | 4.46 | -61.88% | |
| BBI | 2.50 | 0.96 | -61.60% | |
| TTMI | 12.00 | 4.65 | -61.25% | |
| CXR | 10.70 | 4.20 | -60.75% | |
| CKXE | 7.70 | 3.03 | -60.65% | |
| ISIL | 22.30 | 8.84 | -60.36% | |
| MFLX | 20.70 | 8.21 | -60.34% | |
| ALV | 38.90 | 15.48 | -60.21% | |
| PACR | 20.60 | 8.36 | -59.42% | |
| ARO | 33.20 | 13.65 | -58.89% | |
| CMCO | 25.50 | 10.50 | -58.82% | |
| RBN | 43.80 | 18.04 | -58.81% | |
| VCLK | 12.20 | 5.05 | -58.61% | MD Research |
| EME | 29.70 | 12.45 | -58.08% | |
| FLR | 75.10 | 31.91 | -57.51% | |
| NPO | 38.60 | 16.42 | -57.46% | |
| VSH | 8.50 | 3.62 | -57.41% | |
| TTWO | 22.90 | 9.82 | -57.12% | MD Research |
| GSOL | 12.30 | 5.31 | -56.83% | |
| AG | 54.00 | 23.48 | -56.52% | |
| AKAM | 24.40 | 10.63 | -56.43% | |
| GDI | 45.40 | 19.96 | -56.04% | |
| CEC | 33.70 | 14.91 | -55.76% | |
| TIF | 39.70 | 17.71 | -55.39% | |
| CLS | 8.00 | 3.59 | -55.13% | |
| SVR | 16.90 | 7.65 | -54.73% | |
| PLCE | 38.20 | 17.55 | -54.06% | |
| SAPE | 7.70 | 3.57 | -53.64% | |
| PCR | 27.00 | 12.54 | -53.56% | |
| KBR | 24.50 | 11.44 | -53.31% | |
| DELL | 22.10 | 10.35 | -53.17% | |
| NWS | 13.90 | 6.55 | -52.88% | MD Research |
| VTIV | 22.20 | 10.52 | -52.61% | |
| VIA.B | 28.50 | 13.51 | -52.60% | |
| WTSLA | 4.70 | 2.25 | -52.13% | |
| BKE | 32.10 | 15.39 | -52.06% | |
| FINL | 10.60 | 5.11 | -51.79% | |
| NZ | 12.50 | 6.09 | -51.28% | |
| NSM | 20.40 | 10.04 | -50.78% | |
| JAS | 23.60 | 11.62 | -50.76% | |
| MWW | 18.70 | 9.23 | -50.64% | |
| GME | 41.40 | 20.56 | -50.34% | |
| RX | 21.60 | 10.73 | -50.32% | |
| CPWR | 10.80 | 5.39 | -50.09% | |
| FIX | 13.80 | 6.93 | -49.78% | |
| RSH | 16.80 | 8.46 | -49.64% | |
| PII | 44.70 | 22.64 | -49.35% | |
| MSTR | 63.30 | 32.65 | -48.42% | MD Research |
| MAN | 49.40 | 25.62 | -48.14% | |
| SOHU | 71.90 | 37.29 | -48.14% | |
| PH | 63.20 | 33.80 | -46.52% | |
| OMC | 42.10 | 22.68 | -46.13% | |
| PCP | 96.20 | 52.34 | -45.59% | |
| CCRN | 15.60 | 8.49 | -45.58% | |
| NTE | 10.20 | 5.58 | -45.29% | |
| ADTN | 22.30 | 12.31 | -44.80% | |
| BR | 19.40 | 10.72 | -44.74% | |
| QLGC | 17.70 | 9.87 | -44.24% | |
| GPS | 17.90 | 10.09 | -43.63% | |
| PCLN | 97.80 | 55.25 | -43.51% | |
| IVGN | 41.20 | 23.42 | -43.16% | |
| KNSY | 34.20 | 19.48 | -43.04% | |
| MRX | 19.20 | 10.96 | -42.92% | |
| GR | 48.60 | 27.84 | -42.72% | |
| IM | 18.20 | 10.56 | -41.98% | |
| INTC | 21.40 | 12.49 | -41.64% | |
| XLNX | 24.50 | 14.67 | -40.12% | |
| SYX | 16.30 | 9.79 | -39.94% | |
| SWIR | 12.50 | 7.51 | -39.92% | |
| AOB | 8.40 | 5.12 | -39.05% | |
| ROST | 38.40 | 23.50 | -38.80% | |
| EQ | 45.20 | 27.99 | -38.08% | |
| ROG | 40.40 | 25.16 | -37.72% | |
| SWIM | 9.10 | 5.67 | -37.69% | |
| SUNH | 15.70 | 9.85 | -37.26% | |
| AYI | 41.90 | 26.33 | -37.16% | |
| FRX | 34.10 | 21.49 | -36.98% | |
| RSCR | 19.00 | 12.00 | -36.84% | |
| WMS | 30.70 | 19.39 | -36.84% | |
| CTL | 36.90 | 23.86 | -35.34% | |
| SLE | 13.50 | 8.82 | -34.67% | |
| SNPS | 22.70 | 15.18 | -33.13% | |
| CA | 22.80 | 15.30 | -32.89% | |
| ELNK | 8.70 | 5.86 | -32.64% | MD Research |
| EMR | 46.60 | 31.63 | -32.12% | |
| ACN | 39.40 | 27.00 | -31.47% | |
| MSFT | 26.50 | 18.29 | -30.98% | |
| LXK | 34.30 | 23.79 | -30.64% | |
| HUB.B | 40.70 | 28.69 | -29.51% | |
| CTR | 17.40 | 12.31 | -29.25% | |
| ASIA | 12.30 | 8.73 | -29.02% | |
| CQB | 15.30 | 10.87 | -28.95% | |
| Q | 3.60 | 2.61 | -27.50% | |
| ABC | 40.50 | 29.61 | -26.89% | |
| DDUP | 22.10 | 16.24 | -26.52% | |
| ORCL | 21.30 | 16.00 | -24.88% | |
| WPI | 29.40 | 22.14 | -24.69% | |
| NSR | 22.20 | 16.92 | -23.78% | |
| CHKP | 24.00 | 18.44 | -23.17% | |
| PPD | 43.20 | 33.84 | -21.67% | |
| BVF | 10.10 | 8.19 | -18.91% | |
| T | 30.90 | 25.23 | -18.35% | |
| OMI | 46.60 | 38.41 | -17.58% | |
| EXPO | 31.40 | 26.06 | -17.01% | |
| BJ | 39.60 | 33.42 | -15.61% | |
| PFE | 18.40 | 15.56 | -15.43% | |
| RAI | 51.70 | 44.19 | -14.53% | |
| CBZ | 8.30 | 7.20 | -13.25% | |
| VGR | 17.20 | 15.03 | -12.62% | MD Research |
| CEPH | 75.10 | 74.27 | -1.11% | |
| CPB | 36.60 | 36.94 | 0.93% | |
| DSCP | 48.60 | 50.70 | 4.32% | |
| CYCL | 7.20 | 7.55 | 4.86% | |
| LHCG | 27.30 | 31.65 | 15.93% | |
| Average: | -49.40% |
MFI investors are in good company... This $63 million portfolio is getting hammered just as hard, if not harder, than everyone else, with the positions down an average 49.4%. Only 4 of 156 positions are positive. Well over half of them were MFI stocks: 90 of 156. There may be more that appeared on the official MFI site, as MagicDiligence only records the 100 over 50 million and 50 over 2 billion screens.
Of course, if we confronted Joel Greenblatt on this, his response would be predictable. Stocks return to their true value over a period of 2-3 years. 3-month returns don't matter. Stocks are deeply undervalued. This is the outlook we need to maintain, even in these scary times.
Calculate Magic Formula statistics for any stock with the MFI Stats Calculator tool.
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